A Study of Espionage Missions

Prices:Parameters:
dist – distance from actual city or capital to your nearest city
pop – size of actual city or capital
level – level of settlement, 1 for town, 2 for city and 3 for metropol
opp_cult – opponents culture
your_cult – your culture
techs – number of opponents techs
units – total number of opponents units
shield – number of shields the opponent have invested

Factors found in editor:
base – base cost
mapsize – average of width and height
techrate – factor based on world size


Mission Base Cost formula

Build an Embassy 20 dist*level + base + pop
Investigate City 10 dist*level + base * pop
Steal Technology 10 dist*level + base * techs*techrate/100
Steal World Map 1 dist*level + base * mapsize
Plant Spy 60 dist*level + base
Steal Plans 10 dist*level + base * unit
Initiate Propaganda 100 dist*level + base * pop * (1 + opp_cult/your_cult)
Sabotage Production 10 dist*level + base * shield
Expose Enemy Spy 80 dist*level + base
For the misson where there is a choice of risk, multiply by 3/2 for carefully and 2 for safely.

Success chance
Build an Embassy and
Investigate City
Always succeed

Plant Spy
[Embassy 50%]
[Conscript spy 20%]
Regular spy 50%
Veteran spy 60%
[Elite spy 75%]
If a spy plant fails you will get a flag saying so. You cant plant a spy when flagged. There is a chance of 1/3 for the flag to disappear each turn. Failing other spy mission, does not trigger the flag. You can plant a spy the same turn your spy has been exposed by a failed mission.

Steal Technology,
Steal World Map,
Steal Plans
and
Sabotage ProductionChance of getting away in %:
Immidiate Carefully Safely
Embassy 40 55 65
Regular spy 60 75 85
Veteran spy 70 85 95

Its 80% chance of succeeding if not getting caught so:
Chance of succeding in %:
Immidiate Carefully Safely
Embassy 32 44 52
Regular spy 48 60 68
Veteran spy 56 68 76

Expose Enemy Spy
Same probabilities as above, except you always fail if the enemy does not have a spy.

Initiate Propaganda
You will never get caught

The chance of persuading each citizen are:

spy + government + culture – 5 * units – improvment – capital + nationality

Where:
spy – 10 for veteran spies, 0 for regular
improvment – 20 if the city has courthouse, 0 otherwise (This is not cumultative)
capital – 40 for the capital, 0 otherwise
units – number of units in garison
nationality – 20 for your own citizen, 0 otherwise.

The government and culture factor are found in the editor.
Government modifier
Anarchy Desp Monarchy Comm Rep Demo Fascism Feud
Anarchy 0 0 0 0 0 [ 0] 0 0
Despotism 15 0 -10 -15 -20 [-30] 0 0
Monarchy 20 15 0 -5 -10 [-25] 0 0
Communism 25 20 5 0 -10 [-20] 0 0
Republic 30 25 10 8 0 [ -5] 0 0
Democracy 35 30 20 10 5 [ 0] 0 0
Fascism 0 0 -5 -20 -10 [-10] 0 0
Feudalism 20 15 0 -10 -10 [-20] -25 0
Democracy is immune against propaganda. But for some reason other governments have a modifier against demo. I have no idea why, but I included it just for fun.Culture factors
Disdainful 3
Dismissive 5
Unimpressed 10
Impressed by 20
Admires of 25
In awe of 30

If at least 3/4 of the citizen are persuading, the city will flip. This makes it easier to flip a city of size 4n, than a city of size 4n-1, and in some situation even 4n-2. If the chance of confusing 1 citizen is greater than 1/3, it will be easier to flip a city of size 4 than 2.

If the city does not flip, the persuaded citizen will be confused. Each will give 1 unhappy face. The number of confused citizen are reduced by 1 for each turn. It is not cumultative, if there allready are confused citizen in the city, it will be raised to the number of persuaded citizen or stay the same.

The flip chance are not affected by previous propaganda.

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